NUCLEAR and PRESENT DANGER

Like most everybody, I could write what I know about nuclear power and nuclear fuel on the back of a postage stamp. What I do know – or think I know – is that last Friday’s earthquake off the coast of northern Japan and the tsunami that followed, catastrophic as both were, are in danger of being dwarfed by the incident developing at the Fukushima nuclear plant. Nobody seems to know whether this incident is containable. Worse still, nobody seems to have much faith in the candour of either the nuclear authorities or the government in Japan. We are told not to panic but the incident worsens by the hour.

Another explosion at the Fukushima plant

Contemplating this unfolding disaster, a whole string of questions suggest themselves to me, questions that I see no prospect of being answered. Perhaps if enough of us ask such questions in enough forums around the world, some answers might emerge.

To begin, I ask: why are the Japanese guardians of nuclear power evidently improvising their responses to the incident? Were there no well-worked and well-rehearsed drills in place to deal with every conceivable eventuality? If so, why are these responses failing to produce the desired results? If no repair and containment routines were in fact ready, why not?

Where tectonic plates meet are earthquake fault lines; this map also sites significant volcanoes

It is certainly the case that the incidence of earthquakes is almost impossible to predict, as such events do not signal their imminence. But the locations of potential earthquakes is well known and well charted. For instance, everyone knows that one day “the big one” will befall San Francisco, and people live and work in that city knowing that this is the context of their choice. But knowing where earthquakes are liable to strike ought to determine precisely where not to build nuclear plants – oughtn’t it? So, given that almost the entire landmass of Japan is on an earthquake line, why were any nuclear plants ever built there?

Sites of the world's present nuclear plants

An evacuation zone has been established for some days around the Fukushima site, with a further caution zone beyond that. The people have been evacuated but what about the animals, particularly those kept in various capacities for food? What about the land on which food is – and presumably will in future be – grown? When wind conditions are such that it seems likely that radioactive dust will be blown out to sea, the consensus seems to be that this is a relief. How come? Do waves not bring such contamination back to shore? Will not radioactive particles enter the food chain that derives from the sea? Are the Japanese, of all people, going to give up seafood for some determined or indeterminate period?

If natural upheavals can breach the defences of nuclear plants, what about unnatural attacks upon them? How safe are nuclear plants anywhere from damage or even destruction by suicide bomber or some other kind of terrorist assault?

Sites of 33 "serious" nuclear incidents over the last 60 years

If significant numbers of Japanese citizens are contaminated by radiation, what recompense will they receive? The victims of vast and horrific disasters at Bhopal and Chernobyl were largely left to bear the brunt of the damage without any degree of appropriate compensation. The Japanese are, I imagine, better able than were the poor peasants of Madya Pradesh and what is now Ukraine (but, at the time of Chernobyl was part of the USSR) to ensure that an injury attributable to preventable catastrophe will be paid for, and paid for handsomely. Lloyds of London, already braced for the claims that will follow the earthquake and tsunami, may have a lot more paying out to face yet.

Finally, is nuclear worth the risk? That is perhaps the biggest question of all. I am not holding my breath.

The big one

PS: Tonight, BBC4 was scheduled to show a new programme called The End of the World: A Horizon Guide to Armageddon. The word Horizon in the title refers to the science-based strand that used to appear on BBC2 but, in this dumbed-down culture, is only entrusted these days with occasional specials on a channel that nobody watches. The programme has been pulled, however. I have no doubt that the reason for its postponement is the nuclear problem at Fukushima. Surely, now is precisely the moment to broadcast it.