1) He is a game-changer. Neither before nor immediately after the general election, did anybody anticipate that by the end of July the bookies’ favourite to lead the party would be a career backbencher of more than three decades’ standing who is comfortable discussing Marx on television (as he did with Andrew Marr). So already the political landscape has changed and when that happens it doesn’t only affect the party in question. As Matthew d’Ancona shrewdly described in The Guardian (july 27), apprehension has grown among thoughtful Tories that Corbyn is not to be dismissed lightly.
2) He is a vote-winner. His seat, Islington North, is the smallest in area and the most densely populated in Britain and his majority there has risen from 6,700 in 2005 to 12,400 in 2010 and 21,200 this year. The overblown issue of entryism does not detract from the fact that party membership, both full and associate, has grown greatly since the election and reflects the particular enthusiasm for Corbyn’s campaign among the hitherto disenchanted young and rejuvenated veterans like me. People understand that Corbyn represents something to vote FOR.
3) He is what the electorate have been waiting for. For years the media told us that people have given up believing politicians, that they think they’re all the same, that they’ve all got their noses in the trough, that they don’t know what ordinary lives are like, that they’re only out for themselves, that they bend to every passing wind and think only in soundbites. Now along comes a politician who counters all these notions. What’s not to like? Yet the same media tell us that he’s a dinosaur, an extremist, a dreamer who can’t possibly get elected. Corbyn is disrupting the conventional wisdom.
4) He is not Michael Foot and he is unlikely to split the party. The circumstances now are very different from those that obtained when a group of Labour MPs broke away to form the SDP in 1981. At the previous election (in 1979), only three parties had received more than one million votes; this year six parties did. In the House in 1981, there were only 27 members who were not from the Conservative or the Labour parties. Now there are 68. This is not propitious for the formation of a new party, which would have difficulty finding available ground to occupy. But which existing party could they join? For all sorts of reasons, none is attractive for an ambitious Labour MP. And could they cross the floor without embracing the logic of a by-election to confirm the change, as Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless did when they defected to Ukip? This far from a future general election, they would be mercilessly pilloried without it. Moreover, changing colours rarely improves the fortunes of the changer. None of the founders of the SDP ever held ministerial office again.
6) He will survive opposition within the party. As he has already made clear, Corbyn would put himself up for re-election as leader at least once before 2020, possibly annually. The anti-Corbynites would have a problem squaring a refusal to accept that such a provision is sufficient with any claim to respecting democracy. By the time Corbyn were re-confirmed in office, Chuka Umunna might have decided that he would do better to be inside the tent looking out than outside looking in, unless of course his alternative career in the city were too lucrative to pass up.
7) He will oblige David Cameron to be a more serious, consistent and transparent prime minister. The sneering and patronising that Cameron relied on against Ed Miliband and deploys now (though less so) against Harriet Harman will cut no ice with Corbyn. Every ducked question will be conspicuous and will be hunted down, every scripted semi-joke will fall flat, every ‘politician’s answer’ will look shifty beside Corbyn’s candour and forthrightness.
8) He will neutralise Ukip. Nigel Farage’s vehicle in this parliament will be the EU referendum. Cameron already has his work cut out to cobble together a manifesto that persuasively suggests that he has secured genuine change in Europe, especially given the number of Tory MPs who will believe that no re-negotiation can ever be enough. I’m guessing that Corbyn will allow his party to vote according to individual conscience and will eschew a three-line whip over the referendum. He is not so root-and-branch opposed to the EU as his mentor Tony Benn, but of all the leadership candidates, he is the one most likely to propose voting to leave the EU if he assesses that Cameron’s manifesto is inadequate. Whichever way it falls out, Farage will no longer have a monopoly on Euroscepticism.
9) He will work with the SNP. I would not be at all surprised if he appointed a Shadow Scottish secretary from within the SNP ranks, and perhaps one of two other frontbenchers from the SNP, the LibDems and Caroline Lucas. Corbyn understands that Labour’s route back to being relevant in Scotland will not be identified in terms of differences with the Nationalists. I wouldn’t rule out a pact, even a merger between the SNP and Labour in Scotland. Corbyn’s and Nicola Sturgeon’s positions across a wide range of policy are closer than Corbyn’s and Liz Kendall’s.
10) He will weather the storms. As a rank outsider needing the nominations of MPs who averred that they weren’t actually going to vote for him in order to get on the ballot paper, Corbyn has nothing to lose. If he weren’t already stoic, battle-hardened and dauntless, he would still have no instinct to be fearful. The Tory press will find that he can shrug off or effectively counter their propaganda much more readily than most of his predecessors did. Moreover, any opinion polls suggesting that the public were taking time to give him their trust would be much easier to dismiss after the pig’s ear that they all made of the general election. A couple of stonking by-election wins, especially against turncoat Labour backbenchers in new colours, will soon confirm what I am proposing here, that Corbyn will be the smartest move Labour has made for very many years.
No comments:
Post a Comment